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Posts Tagged ‘St Petersburg’

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Expectation and Expertise

St. Petersburg University of Economics and Finance



Environmental Politics and Policy Lectures June 2-7


Mohad
Where to begin… With the student presentations! Of course!!










fountain5

water

gazprom

dinner

fountain1

outdoors

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Energetica XX!

twin peaksreports


posterLaszlo


11/29: The Sixth International Conference <<Energetica XXI>>: Economy, Policy, Ecology, sponsored by Gazprom and St. Petersburg State University of Economics.

I need to provide details on all the good energy talks, and (whoa) my own debut on the Russian energy stage… ūüôā

Up now we have Mr. Lazlo Varro, IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013. Job descriptions are changing. Traditional importers are becoming energy producers, like the United States which was an importer is becoming a gas exporter. Middle East countries are becoming drivers of consumption. No good solutions for climate stabilization, carbon emissions are at a global peak. Cheap shale gas drove coal out of the energy mix. Nevertheless, coal is the fastest increasing energy source. Currently the energy system is on track for a 3-5 degrees of warming…. more…

Mr. Lazslo

on stageenergetica

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St. Petersburg

night

The Polyphonic Machine:

25-28 November



first
In general, the uncertainty associated with the enormously costly investments required to guarantee an annual flow of energy to homes and businesses that could be valued at hundreds of billions of dollars suggests the value of correct information is immense, and this value is increasing every day.

The European Energy Directorate concludes that more than a trillion dollars is required just to upgrade the European electric network suggesting the energy future will not be obtained on the cheap. Measure this against the uneasy feeling over ignoring the amount of energy available in a lump of coal, the ability of the Chinese to reduce the time for building nuclear reactors from 10 years to 5 years (ground-break to grid-power), and population increases of 1 billion persons every ten years — and the drive for knowledge provisioning becomes paramount.

second

Exercise #1

Such remarks are substantiated concretely through the examples associated with our little exercise on the rise of the Polyphonic Machine.


third
Our proposal focused on the unique forms of distancing affects associated with the aesthetic treatment for requirements of provisioning knowledge of understanding energy investments.

fourthBy ‚Äúdistancing affects‚ÄĚ, we refer here, of course, to how acts associated with the semantic provisioning of accurate planning become themselves the end points (rather than the means) for deliberate rational action. Thus, like an aristocracy before us, we live through sites of ever more concentrations of representing lifestyle associated with distance from the actual relations of reproducing basic needs.



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Lunch Chat with TSL

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Data Collection (or night in the city)

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The evening began simple enough.




We clocked in at the Georgian watering hole, –ú–į–ľ–į–Ľ—č–≥–į. Talking about this and that.
mam


We included a stopover for brief discussion with an attendant.
attendant


Finally, we arrived at our destination –
lightsthereDuring our previous visit to the Corinthia in January, while attending the INSOK meeting. We simply did not capture fully our desire to acknowledge the similarity between graphics on development and abstraction in art.


Where nostalgia over data in the form of (abstract imaging of energy development) proved once again to invite interest.
inside1inside 2


We collected and returned home.
coming


air




11/23: Irina K. was waiting overtime at Pulkovo International with a cue through passport control that log jammed.mirrortogetherair2cardair3

We blew into town amidst drizzle and rush hour.

Upon arrival, Alexandra D. ran over for a re-introduction and then walked me in through the spanking new accommodations.

Nevsky Prospect humming so trendy with restaurants filled to the gill. I have never seen the avenue so jammed.

I grabbed a latte and remembered that St. Petes is the only town to give a fifty percent discount on to-go.





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arrivingforumstage

20-22 June 


St. Petersburg International Economic Forum

Forum website, sponsored by FSU
Saint Petersburg, Russia


more of it Putin

Epilogue: I had the opportunity to reflect on the International Forum while strolling the Neva river bank and with Julia Smirnova, marine geologist (aka Miss Polar Lows).

As I explained to Julia, the forum reflects a gathering of glad-handing big shots whose lives are out of touch with everyone else wandering the city streets. But it is also a specific occasion for a collective of events.space At the SPB International Forum, new participants are enrolled into frameworks of understanding, truths emerge even as disagreement and distrust remain.

Attention to certain individuals (career, attitudes) intensifies.

There is continual display of fleeting phenomena (modes of talking, attire), over which various actors converge and publicly declared their interests. It is a public relations moment for different interests.

streets

In short, the Forum represents (and reproduces) a formula of need, that reflects the nature and degree of interdependences that hold together various persons and groups — forming, in this case, Russian economy ‚Äď interdependencies that always require the so-called owners (State), de facto owners (oligarchs), investors (businessmen), and so forth.
neva At the time, during our conversation, four possibilities emerged from my own thought about the experience: (1) The Mirror of Media Democracy; (2) The Space of Governance through Reflection; (3) Hard [Business] Truths; (4) An Event of Our Time.


photo opshots


more of the same

Day Three

6/22: Enhancing Russian Corporate Governance Standards.
This panel was well attended. I sat in the front row next to capital investor Drew Gruff, who has been in and out of Russia for some 20 years. The meeting focused on the problems of recruiting high quality directors for company boards with participants giving a range of suggestions, including implementing American standards that ensure honesty, integrity, and personal liability. Olga Dergunova, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management of the Russian Federation, was the moderator and began the discussion soliciting new proposals for changes to the Corporate Governance/ Behavior Code.

innovationpanel

Dmitry Pankin. On the backdrop of the financial crisis, a lot of information about how management should develop, renumeration has become key, a central topic in discussion of amendments to corporate behavior code.

rtDefinition of independent directors, what are criteria of independence of board members, what percentage of shares can be owned by an independent director to be recognized as such. Another issue is disclosure requirements, how does a company disclose information (to shareholders), alternatives include companies not providing sensitive information that may be deemed as damaging the company, we are still collecting comments.¬†Question by¬†Andrei Bugrov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors, Non Officer, Member of the Management Board, Interros Holding Company. “What part of what you said applies to state owned companies?”

photoingOlga speaks, Corporate Behavior Code, which will be replaced by Corporate Governance Code, will provide more detailed language for business ethics. But how is the current level of governance appreciated by international community?

David Gray, Managing Partner, PwC Russia. The new code is a good step in the right direction, but there is still this perception that Russia is still a place where normal standards are absent, but Russia has made a lot of progress in the past few years, especially in the quality of directors. We have a board survey every year, and a key issue is the quality of candidates in the board. Lack of depth in corporate Russia, especially human capital, technical or financial persons, improvements around the quality of directors is a very practical step.

chessOlga: Quality of corporate directors is important. Andrew Bugrov: One of the realizations emerged from financial crisis, the importance of independence is exercised, but at the expense of expertise, extremely difficult to enroll qualified directors in the boardroom.

Ronald Freeman, Independent Director, Member of the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors, Severstal. If I can add, I am always surprised how self-critical Russians can be. The best Russian corporations have closed the gap between what is written in the code and behavior. How have they done that? The best Russian companies, they want to hear, they demand a diversity of viewpoints, and I’ve seen them change their minds in the course of board meetings. On the other hand, Board of directors have to be prepared, they need to come in ready to do the job right, extremely demanding, preparing. We need to talk more about government of government.

chessingOlga: Quality directors, the ability to get ready and analyze the outcomes on a regular basis, is the second major factor of a quality board. Where is that incubator that can put out directors, not just for Sberbank, but for the 2500 other companies that require independent directors? What is the essence of approach for putting together a quality group?

Dimitry Peskov responds, we do an open procedure, there is an option to file an offer or bid, we look at the competencies of the person, if we can track that down, you can offer tasks for those people, and can identify their clearest manifestations of competency, we more or less understand the competence of an industry and can therefore model a board of directors, whether be charged with making a certain decision, making a foresight, and based on that, persons from all walks of life can be selected, and then we need to balance them in terms of ethical qualities.

Andrei: Is there not a corporate universal exam [referring to Olga to ask how does the state select their board of directors]?

Olga: We have as the state, 2014, independent directors, and we saw that there is corruption in that certain individuals want to work somewhere, and also expertise in one area does not always translate into pragmatic competence. So we came up with a basic set of requirements, certificates of education, chartered experts, and comparing all those requirements, and looking for financial and economic experience within the requirements of a company, but government requires a more universal approach to the selection process, and requires having a system put in place, of codes and laws of professional conduct. Alexander, what advice would you give to corporations to satisfy investors?
folksAlexander Afanasiev, indeed, we are interested in directors, the project to develop the new code of corporate governance is of interest to us, because we are pragmatic beneficiaries of the process, openeness and transparancy of markets provides access to funding. You have to convince shareholders, lenders, government officials, corporate governance plays an important role. According to my personal experience, perception, how you think about the market, lags very much behind in Russian markets, a legacy from the Soviet saying, that the office is stronger than the industry, but we have made advancements quickly, obtaining and protecting assets is not a formula for openness.

Now it is different, owner is separate from management, and owner, shareholders and managers. Here the concentration of capital is high and securing the rights of minority sharelholders is high. Good corporate governance pays back. There is a certain premium for corporate governance.

foodingOlga, continuing on the thesis of listing, information about the company, performance, transparency, not only increasing opportunity to take loans at lower rates, and here my question is to Albert, the NYSE is stringent about reports, and the sanctions when they are found invalid, and what would you recommend.

Albert Ganyushin, Head of International Listings, NYSE Euronext. Both in US and Europe there are very strict standards. In Russia, a European approached based on OECD is more widespread. The US described: a set of rules is quite narrow, but you have to ensure 100 percent compliance, why is this system good? because it raises the corporate governance to a minimum capital level, which creates a mark below that you cannot operate, as a result, the US is the most developed in the world, why was it done?

Strict compliance with minimum standards, provide valid reporting, and there are no other approaches in the American market, what does that mean in Russian market, I think there should be strict compliance. The head of a company should sign a paper and state he will not lie.

lightsAnd if a company is ready to do that then the company is ready to operate. Since Russia prioritizes building an affective capital market, the process could be accelerated, and the process takes some time, but could focus on a minimum standard. If you own the company you can make your own rules, but if you want to attract investors at a low price, then the minimum set of standards could help. One more thing, companies in Moscow and NYSE, we advocate that we work together and there shouldn’t be any problem following these problems and that helps promote corporate culture.

photo opQ: Andrei Bugrov, what are the most common mistakes? A: Usually, companies choose too many indicators, which is useless, and make people aware of indicators, and that they have to work within a framework, when the system starts operating, the main thing is not to go mad, because the system starts providing so much information, and it takes a lot of time and effort, and so has to avoid erroneous decisions, however, nothing more successful has been invented yet.

yeahFreeman, adding, good board acts like a good string quartet, board effectiveness, you know what it is when you see it. Directors can be dismissed on an annual basis and retained collectively. Andrei, reaffirming that Freeman’s comments are important.

Michael Kleinemeier, President, SAP in Middle and Eastern Europe, Maksim Krasnyih, Director for Russia and CIS, Intel Capital, Andrei Volkov, Rector, Moscow School of Management Skolkvovo

Russia’s Green Agenda: A Sustainable Approach to Drive Russian Productivity and Competitiveness. Speaking now is¬†Sergei Yefimovich Donskoy, Minister of Natural Resources, speaking of Russia’s adoption of a state plan for green initiatives, “Arctic zone development” — a road map for environmental regulation, focusing on¬†mitigation of previous environmental impacts, recycling and modernization of industry.

headsLaw on technological regulation and incentives, less red tape, use of electronic data bases, oversight performance of regulation, for environmental concerns. Safe handling of wastes is another important issue, requiring decisive measures or Russia will become a “big dump site”, establishing a new industry for treating solid waste, requiring changes in legislation, adoption no later than spring 2014. Also within our green policies, protection of Baikal lake and surrounding areas. Key areas of the nation, environmental impacts, every year a billion tons of waste, hundreds of thousands of hectares, putting in place a list of priorities for 45 regions, allocation 120 billion rubles, total investments in environmental sector will increase to double current rate, seeking to clarify areas for efficiency of investments

insideAndrei Elinson, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Basic Element, Chairman of the Board, Basel Aero. Our own 70 person working team has been evaluating current legislation, continues with a legacy with command and control. An average permit in the current system require 1-1.5 years, whatever enterprise, you need to fill out hundreds of documents. Issues like “damage” does not have a precise definition, with more than 1500 regulating documents, describing various relations of various bodies in the country. Competitiveness should be a main driver in greening the environment and many companies are moving toward environmental awareness as part of their development models.

Sergei Donskoy, Minister of Natural Resources, apologizes for being emotional, but reasserts that environmental legislation requires attention. Isaac Sheps, President, Baltika Breweries, Senior Vice President, Eastern Europe, Carlsberg Group. 40 percent of waste revolves around packaging, so we have been looking to recycle and reuse for new packaging, the brewery way of sustainability. Clusters of sustainable industry around our brewery, establishing glass and can factories near the brewery to save on transportation costs in recycling.

Alexander Chuvaev, Executive Vice President, Fortum Corporation, Russian Division, pointing out the modern capacities of electricity generation in Sweden, and increasing reliance on natural gas.

Natalia Khanjenkova, Managing Director, European Bank (EBRD) Russia. 240 billion Euros to bring Russia up to environmental standards equivalent to Europe. Russia consumes energy 2 or 3 times more than other countries.

facialEvgeny Schwartz, Director of Conservation Policy, WWF Russia. Global economy is indeed globalized. Environmental sensitivity in Russia is especially visible in Russian forestry, industry is very supportive of environmentalists, why it is important to treat Russia as a global basis, positioned between environmentalist Europe and not so environmentally sensitive China, consumers on one hand and producers on the other hand, China is beginning to demand sustainable timber products to meet European Union legislation surrounding environmental protection involved in production for imports.

sceneOil and Gas, and Mining, needs work, the worst industry is the financial segment. The bill currently being reviewed and discussed (environmental legislation) — categorizes projects, assessment of environmental impacts, should protect small and medium business interests.

James Rosenfield, the right path for Russia is that one unique for Russia, looking at a global scale, start with the point made by everyone here, of energy efficiency, the 5th fuel at CERA, efficiency, Second, great energy technology contributions and enthusiasms for that, Skolkovo start up village, privileged to present on renewable, and sat through 50 start up businesses on renewables, and amazing to see what Russian technology has to offer the rest of the world, and that prime minister Medvedev attended, and that leadership has to start at the top, so having Donsky here is important.

more of itGreat rebirth of renewable energy wave, 1970s, response to oil shock, small scale, but today, massive worldwide build up of modern supply chains, creating massive electricity generation all around renewables, while in emerging markets it is 15 percent of green energy, one trillion dollars in past 3 years invested in green energy, meeting climate concerns but also growing energy demand, and that response to fears of peak demand, but also more recently a reversal in green energy because of financial meltdown and shale gale has a powerful mindset on the concept of scarcity, growing awareness of hydrocarbon abundance, and the “green spread”, the costs associated with renewables, is widening, originally had thought to decrease, and there is a reconsideration of renewable energy. On the supply side, an over supply of renewables, solar and wind have twice the capacity to meet demand, and we’re seeing consolidation in industry, with prices dropping for solar, and also a change in attitudes in Silicon Valley toward greentech, as folks settle in to longterm advances.

red room60 countries are invested in renewable portfolios, and emerging markets are more interested, however, “economic competitiveness” is continually driving the discussion around renewable and environmental developments, and this is having an effect in Western Europe, with Germany industrial community requesting a relax from high cost decisions surrounding supply.¬†10 percent of global capacity by 2025.

stuffMy big recommendations, besides the cornerstone of efficiency. Focus on remote off grid sectors, Vladivostok versus Moscow, second, rationalize structure, you have heat and no power, third, solid waste problem, use technologies for energy generation; next leverage your low cost gas resource, a myriad gas enabling technologies, finally, leverage your competitive advantage in science and technology  in R and D, material sciences, bio sciences. The green story will take some time to unfold in Russia, but when it happens it will take place very quickly. With patience and time you will see a different energy future in Russia.

subwayKeynote Speeches


Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Vladimir Putin, responding to comments, including in the New York Times today, that Russia continues to not be the best environment for foreign investment. In the key note, Putin responds to these concerns, by stating he/Russia is committed to protecting the rights of minority investors, create tax incentives for citizens to invest in capital markets, modernize financial regulation, curb offshore financial instruments (offshoring of world economy).

main hallHere, Putin mentioned a number of energy infrastructure projects, including LNG terminals and increased movements of oil and gas to China and Asia. Accessible bank credit especially for SME’s, giving banks opportunities to lower costs from removing regulatory accounting procedures. Creating a better more reliable business climate.

insideOur investment image and internal perception, depends upon our (government) actions to improve business climate “de-penalize” commercial disputes, at the judicial level, municipal and state bodies, unite supreme court and arbitration court of Russia, intend on asking parliament and judiciary, to establish a “business ombudsman” with certain powers for defending the interests of the business community in relation to government, including suspending acts taken by municipal authorities, giving class action suits [?].

Yet another government proposal, to declare amnesty for certain individuals who have committed serious offense of the state, money counterfeiter, Draft amnesty, has been read by the business community. According to this draft amnesty, crimes related to entrepreneurial activity, economic amnesty not only restores justice, but a chance to reorganize a space for entrepreneurial institutions, respecting entrepreneurs and law.

Human capital. Health care and education, social changes in economy… abstract figures of industrial growth should not be our ultimate goal.

st. petersAngela Merkel is up now, talking about globalization, how it can and should be shaped. Working toward the G20 coming up, and emphasizing global free trade, accept competition from all over the world. European Union, Free trade region established between EU and USA, drawing down barriers to trade. Russia also wants to establish ties, to EU, USA, Pacific region. Germany wishes to support Russia’s efforts to diversity its economy, trade increasing between the two countries, especially in the energy sector, the energy mix will depend for a very long time on natural gas, of tremendous importance, Nord Stream, a forward looking project for energy transportation, a “truly European project” — Gazprom, Rostneft, we are also having German companies in the exploitation (upstream) here in Russia, standing ready to cooperate very closely.

Looking for transparent rules in business development, and here Germany can be a good partner, of tremendous importance, in the long run, we can only be prosperous if the entire of EU is prosperous, Russia always stood by our side, making a commitment to the Euro, and we have shown in the Eurozone, that politically, we have committed ourselves to the Euro, though trust from investors had eroded during the financial crisis, whether countries could repay their debt.

signManagement of economies, sound fiscal policy will loom large at the G20 meeting. Competitiveness, each country will need to prevail in competition, structural reform, respond to sound fiscal policy, that each country requires to reclaim competitiveness. Lending is a big deal in SMEs, and set up a particular lending institution sponsored by the government. Economic coordination, research and development, unit labor costs, cannot be great disparity within the EU zone.

Arguably, the high unemployment rate among young people, is the most pressing issue in Europe. Greater need for coordinated labor market.

Zhang Gaoli,¬†Vice Premier, People’s Republic of China. Allow me to congratulate you on the successful opening of the forum and stimulating global economic growth. There are certain positive changes given uncertainty. We do not have enough drive behind global economic growth. Undertake steps to support open environments (business), international trade based on free and rational exchange.

Q & A. Economic Summit. Serious reaction to US Federal reserve board policy.

manPutin — what Russia should do is covered in my remarks. Adjustment is needed as some point, esp. with continued liquidity in the market, and it is not right to expect the world to follow America’s ongoing series of fiscal cliffs, including reducing debt burden by the Fed, which Obama did respond to at the G8.

Merkel, responding to policies good for Germany not necessarily good for Europe, making a brief comment, referring to the previous comment about Bernake, that high liquidity was the cause of the past financial crisis, but the reaction shows that we are not back at full balance. But actions of the Fed should not be creating such global fluxes, but just points out how global changes are dependent upon global banks. Secondly, the big deficits suggest that sovereign bonds are nothing to invest in.

Question: Potential exports of natural gas from the United States, projected flat demand for gas in Europe and high prices for natural gas in Asia, suggests that  Arctic oil and gas for export to Asia make sense, but requires technology and investment. In the Barents Sea, a number of Norwegian and Russian workshops suggests that Russia is not open enough to foreign investment  and partnerships in the Arctic development sector, can you comment?

peopleDaniel Yergin Question: how do you see developments in oil and gas and what is Russian strategy for handling new developments.

Putin: I do not see any cardinal change. US shale gas affecting economy today, but fundamentally we have not seen big changes. And that shale gas is creating more problems that fundamentally changing the price. I do not serious change, but cardinal changes in technology would be best, we should assume that cheap energy will not be available and new technology.




talkingstarry bar

Day Two

6/21: Day two. Energy Club Summit: Reshaping Global Oil Markets. Moderator, Dr. Daniel Yergin. I have yet to obtain tickets to attend this meeting. Only special invitation is allowed. I view it on one of the screens, or in this case, on front page of the SPIEF which has a live stream of this event.

Already one hour late in getting started and any later, it will overlap with the main event of the day, which is a key note by Vladimir Putin. I met Yergin yesterday. We spoke briefly about what I am up to. Years ago, I worked with the Alaska governors, Tony Knowles and Frank Murkowski. We engaged with CERA. On a few occasions, I lunched with Knowles and Yergin.



escalatorThe Economics of Managing Major Catastrophes. Moderator, Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Context, Economic impact on industry of catastrophes, obviously, taking this panel from the private sector perspective. Costing enormous values economically, socially, politically — with aspirations for economic growth, that creates catastrophic future risk, disaster risk accumulation in East Asia and economic growth curve, who pays, how do we manage increasing global context and abilities to build resilience.

crowdBusiness is lending toward higher risk regions, how do they think about risk, do they calculate them into their investment decision making, what are their instruments, what is the collaboration between the public and private, where is the leadership coming from, what are shared values.

Vladimir Puchkov, Minister of the Russian Federation of Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters. Infrastructure bigger, new branches of economy, bringing IT to most remote places. External factors are different, climate changes, emerges of new risks and threats, earthquakes, tornadoes, etc. requires taking under many factors.

We are taking all necessary measures to minimize risk. Putin has approved strategy on G20, for security, NGOs also very involved. In order to implement this strategy, state system on prevention, unified system of 83 regions of Russia, involves early detection of threats that may emerge. We have build a modern regulatory base just three years ago, and today more than 3000 enterprises in FSU have been required to decrease risk. Step by step we are reducing the number of non-liscensed activities. For example, if a CEO takes on certain obligations on he files [?].

leavingSochi Olympics, for example, many different security professionals were involved during different stages, construction, etc., safety and security. Establishing the reserve systems (reserve fund) operating in the area risk reduction, providing necessary help for certain regions, and money subsidies to populations, entitling folks to 10k rubles and up to 100k rubles for property loss.

more of thisReimbursements cover immediate needs in the wake of disasters. Educating populace about disaster mitigation (threats, natural disaster relief). International cooperation for forecasting disasters and risk management issues, shaping new models that effectively allow us to manage societies, we need to be able to invest in protection of critical infrastructure, but finding a balance, draw a border line, that we are safe but that our businesses have resources, that they operate in a safe environment, but that they operate indeed. And Russia operates within a variety of multinational networks. Forecasting and prevention is key, putting together powerful international tools that allow us to enable improve our decision making process.

Margareta sums up, “Thank you Minister, economic models, public awareness, financial instruments, government capacity to provide safe environments, business response.”¬†Safety should be an industrial requirement.

tea timeGill Grady, Senior Vice President, Corporate Business Development, GSE Systems. Minister set up my discussion quite well, what private industry can be doing. If we think about disasters, things we can control, things we cannot control.

Let’s talk about Human Performance, design of plants, whether regulation we have developed is meeting its intended purpose. Introduce regulation and improve safety, what assumptions are we making. If we develop new operating procedures will they be perfect, no.

Where do humans get experience on new events, are worst case scenarios actually worst case, nuclear power industry, the methodology of probabilistic approach and likelihood of things going wrong and building our models around it.

Assumptions of Fukushima, 10 meter wall (14 meter tsunami), back up generators (affected by water), response time. Fukushima gives us an opportunity to make assumptions and new regulations. Where can technology help us, the use of technology and the importance of training operators, simulation based technology and the real risks — industrial, natural, disaster and intentional disaster. Accident assessment technologies.

folksDifferent industries handle risks differently. But we can take another step further. Not a big proponent of new regulation, incrementally changed without understanding the total affect. Russia’s capacity to take a look at the whole picture of risk based approach to analyzing the safety of their industries. Sometimes, we have more strict conditions over how someone drives a car versus a running a billion dollar chemical plant.

Question from the audience: ¬†How do you register thresholds of intentional disaster? Isn’t running down our natural capital in the name of economic growth an intentional disaster?

handyValery Akimov, Head of the All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergency Situations of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor. Risks are growing at faster rates than GDPs, two-fold task, either to grow faster economically, or reduce risks, and reduce material casualties.

Outline several scientific problems. The ministry manages to allocate necessary funds for technology and science. Science cannot do any long term prediction of disasters, but there may be a time where we could predict, or predict with some accuracy, or theory of risk management.

pingClassic theories of probability has not worked out well, predicting that, for example, flooding in certain regions would not occur again, and within a few years of the prediction, flooding took place in those regions for which predictions were created. The volunteers movement is important, in the area of civil emergency response. Our cooperation with the customs, providing safety and security in regard to food production.

Reto Schnarwiler, Managing Director, Swiss Re. government and public authorities, there is a lot of knowledge available on historic events and scenarios, that we need to get a hold of and come up with a risk landscape, based on that transparency of various risks, we could come up with various consequences.

bottleFrancesc Pla Castelltort, Deputy to the Executive Secretary of the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement, Council of Europe. We are in the domain of multi-stakeholders is essential, the link between the scientific work and operations, but other aspects and stakeholders much be taken on board. Risk and resilience is a full network, making decisions at the individual level. National platforms in charge of defining important planning. Creating a demand for creating resilience and safety.

Dr. Valery Sorokin, Professor, Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. Global Marine Protection Initiative. Highlights one small important area of much wider challenge of managing major catastrophes. Preventing, preparing for and dealing with accidents of offshore oil and gas developments. Global annual output is 1.4 billion tons, 1/3 total is offshore. In spite of the experience of 70 years offshore, we must say that accidents happen in offshore rigs, underwater pipelines, and there is no guarantee that it will not happen.

the girls girlsOffshore oil and gas production are frontier energy enterprises. Avoiding risk most of the time, but sometimes something will happen, the accident claimed 11 lives, Deep Horizon platform, flushed tons of oil into the gulf. In the aftermath of the accident, Medvedev suggested at Global Marine Protection Initiative, to deal with these activities. 2010, since then subsequent Summit had some discussions. Establish mechanisms for best practices within the framework of G20. Very top down initiative, but not what it would seem, 10s of stakeholders are participating in our exercises.

Next Panel: Mind the Long-Term Risk: New Standards to Unlock Private Sector Infrastructure Investment.



Star Bar


Day One

6/20- 4PM, Afternoon session: IEA (International Energy Agency) Report launching. Medium Market Report 2013.

mapsMaria van der Hoeven, IEA executive Director. First time every IEA launching a report in a partner country. Because gas markets and Russia go together, important to see, gas remains a fuel of contradictions, stubbornly resists globalization, even in regions affected by energy poverty, gas flaring persists. Gas will emerge as a transportation fuel, natural gas vehicles, will have a bigger impact in reducing oil demand than renewables combined.

photo opLaszlo Varro, Head, IEA Gas Coal and Power markets, about to speak. LNG exports from United States coming up. Sabine and a few other LNG terminals just coming. Persistent tightening of natural gas is a concern, consequences more widely, ongoing competitiveness of coal in Asia, with impacts on emissions.

writing As LNG emerges as export to Europe, creates recovery of supply and export to Europe by Russia, and increased investment in US infrastructure (gas).

China, holds large scale reserves, perhaps comparable to US, but proving difficult to recover, complex geography, water scarcity, regulatory impediments, population proximity. 2020 China will be dominated not by shale but other forms of gas (tight) and imports. Europe same story as China, but also public acceptance is also a big issue, and how important how public confidence is primary.

Spilling over of gas from United States more than development. Okay. Laszlo is up:

Global gas is still gold. However, that said, GG consumption will slow down, due to EU demand and ME/Africa supply. But. Uptick on gas soon. Round the world tour begins with US — continues to dominate non-conventional development. Better seismic, drilling and fracking, “mass manufacturing” methods in oil field services, strong financial boost from liquids. Wow. Commercial development of Gas would be greater than any outside US production.

graphicSecurity issues, depletion and domestic demand growth lead to tight LNG supply. Within the next 5 years, decline in gas from ME, which has positive impact on global demand. Very large investments in Australian LNG — biggest investment base, 150 billion dollars, 85 percent taken in by Asian countries, non-spot market.

“So, if I connect high productivity in the US with tightening global supply, that would mean increased US LNG export, soon turning US into number 3 global gas exporter (contingent on Japan contracts).”

China moving to handle emissions from coal, air quality is emerging as the key question and gas is the answer. New gas heating in 3.5 million homes, 7 million tons of industrial coal consumption replaced by gas. Chinese non-conventional gas developments can not keep up with demand. China’s import needs are growing immensely.

gazpromRussia still needs to develop infrastructure in harsh climate conditions in order to fulfill request exports in China. Japan, nuclear restoration stabilizes LNG demand and eliminates need for oil. Europe, Bah, never really recovers to the pre-financial crisis level. Shale gas in Europe are not going to make the kind of shale revolution akin to US.

gazNatural gas automobiles. Natural Gas in transport in United States and China. In US, readily available supply, in China, mainly because of air quality concerns. US next 5 years will be about building up infrastructure to deliver gas, rolling out LNG trucks, CNG buses and trucks, deliver 120 thousand barrels a day.

Prices. $4 mbtu in US, $10mbtu in Europe; $20 mbtu in Asia.

Possible game changer — if I have to think about it: methane hydrates in Japan.

Significant gas growth in Asia. Russian Pacific and Arctic, not cheap but the good news is that Australian projects are not cheap, and off-shore Africa is not cheap. But the question is will they be as profitable as pipeline projects. No.

Political volatility. How about demand volatility, presumes global integration of gas markets. In Europe in particular, would you expect the arrival of US energy supply in the markets, that national governments would impose gas consumption as part of climate change and lower prices?

Maria — we see a shift from natural gas to coal and there could be a shift to gas as a partner fuel to renewables.

Laszlo on China. They will shift to gas, just like London did to get off of coal in the 1950s. If you want to heat a million buildings in China, it cannot be done with nuclear, but only with coal or gas. This issue will drive gas demand even at reasonably high prices.iea


6/20, after lunch: Overcoming Energy Sector Bottlenecks to Gain Supply Stability (in cooperation with Goldman Sachs). Geffrey Currie, Global Head of Commodities Research Goldman Sachs International.

Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, talking about possibilities of stability of supply and infrastructure for nonconventional. Just on Monday altered the taxing law for stimulating (concessions for lower permeable horizons) unconventional oil (40 percent discounts) to ensure recovery of a few billion barrels of oil (recovery). We also agreed with Ministry of Finance, over differences of taxation, just issue additional rules and regulations, no additional commitment for separation for unconventional, sending a good signal to market for increasing recovery ratios.

audienceJean-Pascal Tricoir, President CEO Schneider Electric, we supply technology to oil and gas industries, we also develop technology for energy efficiencies (smart grids, smart cities) for energy consumption. Internet, connecting people to people, but the next 15 years will be about connecting machines to the internet and people to the environment [see below talk this morning which he gave the same]. Helping the automation of pipelines making them more secure and enabling faster trading. On the downstream, very often people consumer in peaks, and now developing technologies to optimize these peak periods.

J. Currie — Shale on global energy markets, far reaching on oil and gas, and coal markets. Gas is displacing the coal on US markets and we are about to overtake Russia on coal export. Why did this take place in the United States. They simply outspent the rest of the world. The largest scale. Fiscal regime, low and stable tax regimes attracted a lot more investment, but having a global impact of shale revolution. “Direct my next question to Dr. Daniel Yergin, how will shale gas develop further and bottlenecks”.

gasDaniel Yergin, world’s logistic system needs to adjust to two things, incredible demand and growth in production. Remember in 2008, we were saying US would run out of oil, and since then it has increased by 50 percent. In natural gas, it has gone up 26 percent over the past 6 years. How quickly will this go to the rest of the world? Given the oil and gas industry is global. First, all shales are not the same, requirements for ascertaining what is actually in the ground, and what developments of industry are available to extract the resource. Questions below and above ground, regulations versus technical capacity for recovery, misperceptions that stand in the way of development, and ownership. In the US, individuals opened up mineral rights which is a great incentive for ownership, a lot of that will depend on the fiscal regime, governments, and public, and what I see in this past year is recognition by the world of what is going on in the United States.

on lineCurrie asking Yergin again: how do you see the long-term price of oil. “Well, certainly as you say, there is a floor [price] under oil”. If you were looking at the build up of supply and low demand growth, but prices are sensitive to politics, paces of development, switching, peak demand on global basis — rather than say “price will be this or that”, need to look at the factors that will shape prices, absent political conflict,

Frontier supply. Question to Taner Yildiz, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey, Black Sea. What will governments need to do to attract invests, particularly in frontier. Now Taner is talking without a translator so no one in the room knows what he is saying.

Okay, now we hear what is going on. “We have very positive economic results, doubled energy consumption, second in Europe in energy consumption, positive in this sense and confidence in our future, located on the Euro-Asian portion of the continent, and looking to develop our relations with Azerbaijan, together with many projects. One focus on natural gas and oil, and what is important is pricing, political perspective, ¬†globalized. Everything is being globalized and glad that we can talk about it.

Kurdistan Ah-Rani [?] [name?] talks about new pipelines [impossible to hear him, feedback in the ear speaker, and it is too low to hear what he is saying]. Questions about legality and rate of returns ensue in Baghdad, attempting to figure it out.

walkingCurrie — US, imbalanced, with production bottlenecked, Asia, totally tight right now because of Fukushima, demanding substantial levels of LNG and finally Europe, stable but over regulated. Question to Sergei Kirienko, General Director, State Atomic Energy Corporation, ROSATOM.

Kirienko. Go Nuclear. What does it mean for shale/

Wintershall.mmdcx [?]

Yergin, what’s going to happen in the next wave of nuclear technologies. “I’ll make a prediction that by 2030s natural gas will have take over oil and coal, and that means that shale gas is much more important, second issue is electricity storage, and third thing, efficiency”.





thinking
6/20 – morning sessions: First day of the SPB Economic Forum, sitting in an early panel on G20 discussions titled, Innovation and Development as Global Priorities. 5 billion people without internet. Digital inclusion as a basic necessity such as water and electricity.

images 3 images images 2Aysegul Ildeniz, Head of Intel META, talking about gender gap in emerging markets, 25 percent less usage by women and 45 percent less in sub-Saharan Africa. Examples from Turkey, Facebook and Twitter usage, directly voicing the social change they want in the country, expressing participation that would not otherwise be necessary.¬†Public-private (“like most people in this room”) partnerships that make the difference.

‚Ä®‚Ä®‚Ä®Jean-Pascal Tricoire, President, Schneider Electric, new subgroup talking about energy. Impact of IT technology on energy sector. Lack of energy takes a big toll on anyone’s life. Seven billion persons, only 2 billion have access to energy. If you focus on electricity will be multiplied by 2 in the next ten years, investing more in the next 20 years since its design since the beginning of electricity. Huge challenge also around climate change.

Cities – 2 percent of population, 80 percent of energy consumption. If we do not design a new mode of living in the cities, we will be deadlocked.

sceneIf internet over the past 20 years was connecting people to people, the next 20 years will be about connecting people to their environment (buildings, factories, cities), connecting 100 times more machines than people. Distributed energy generation. Two tremendous energy transitions. Access to energy for all. Smart cities, connected communities, job creation.

Igor Drozdov moderator, Senior Vice President, Skolkovo Foundation introduces Fulvio Conti, CEO Enel Group. F. Conti- the world is dividing into two pieces, those with energy and those without. Looking to create energy that is cheaper, reliable and sustainable. Cheap: model for energy should be market-based, the guidance for any investment. Giving access to 1.4 billion requires 1 trillion dollars over the next 10 years. You can get some of that back from government but most will come from users. Subsidies are an issue in business, keeping the price too low or high is a non-market transfer. Any kind of subsidy should be up for discussion, requiring a balanced approach, using any kind of energy available.

chessWhatever you use, oil, nuclear, all has to be based on cost without subsidies. New technologies bring the best possibilities for energy development. Electricity is paramount in discussion on sustainability.

You need to have systems without impact. Guidance on market basis that will guide executives on emission reduction. Decarbonizing economy, market driven, polluter pays, or incentives for new technologies.

OMZ’s Vadim Makhov, energy balance, growth of energy consumption higher than growth of population. “I fully agree that look at wastes and improve energy efficiency”. After energy efficiency is renewables.

Renewables growing sector even in compounded aggregate growth rate was 30 percent. Last year was 3 billion. We still have a question of what the bridge fuel will be.

Competition between coal and natural gas. Despite clean coal technology, some years remain to develop commercialization of reliable production. Natural gas better, best compliment to renewables, reliable, available, and less carbon footprint. Other big companies, Rosneft, announcing more natural gas fueling stations. Something needs to be done shifting over to natural gas.

head onPatrick Kron, CEO Alstom. Re-stressing importance of electricity. Wants to diverge on some points: (1) major challenge providing electricity to planetary inhabitants. “I don’t think one energy is bad or good, coal, gas, renewables, should be decided nation by nation basis, what is available”. (2) We need to provide massive energy but deal with global warming, curb emissions (a) improve efficiency along the power chain, address electricity 40 percent efficiency, sequestration CO2, (b) clean technologies are critical for high job drivers and long term policies.

(1) Ask the question What is a clean technology? (2) Make sure we promote green technologies all over the world (3) CO2 pricing mechanism. “We are not in the charity business so pace yourselves on the IT discussion”.

Speaker from audience. “Business has a crucial role in social planning”.

Use of Biotechnologies. Speaker [?]. Crop productivity because of industrial biotechnology. Chickens are fed with enzymes and microbes. Every chicken eaten (practically). Energy sector. Laundry is no longer washed at high temperatures, but lower temperature, because of enzymes included in detergents, and these changes will accelerate. Use of biofuels in corn, in the US, 10 percent, US farmers (next to Canada) are the largest fuel producers in the United States, in participation with biotechnologies.

Regional and national plans, de-risking, market based approaches.

chessingViktor Vekselberg, President, Skolkovo Foundation, Task Force Chairman, with the last word, stating a number positive suggestions, hoping the task force will continue to cooperate and work together, including market motivating comments, “We should not support any form of protectionism, local support of promoting national economies will go nowhere”.

NEXT Panel: Delivering Growth Capital To Russia’s Entrepreneurs‚Ä®. It is absolutely freezing inside this Conference hall. There are a lot of panels going on, but I want to sit this out and wait for this upcoming panel on Entrepreneurship in Russia. About 15 minutes wait and already, there are several cameras in the room, and the seats are filling up. ‚Ä®Folks are really photo-op crazy here at the SPB economic forum, a veritable photo frenzy…

Here we go.

bankerSimon Nixon, Chief European Commentator, Wall Street Journal. Introducing Pekka Viljakainen, Chairman, All Capital. Speaking about his work, advisor at Skolkovo, raising capital for infrastructure projects. Giving a lecture about “smart money”. Biggest barrier for smaller companies — not corruption, regulation, politics, governmental issues — but lack of trust. When you speak to entrepreneurs in smaller cities, the question is “why do I need your money, are your going to take my company” — Russia is about personal friends, without trust, no investment should be made here. Every single investor, everyone knows, the weak point, is the minority investor, “short version, is if you have less than 50 percent, you will be screwed”.

“If I want to triple my money within 5-10 years, Russia’s SME and Internet market is extremely attractive.”

roomTurning now to Sir Suma Chakrabarti, President, Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Biggest killer for new entrepreneurs is concentration of economic power in three sectors: (1) energy industry; (2) geography (within certain locations); (3) State still owns too much.

Needs repeating, with concentration of power, you have vested interests. Red tape and bureaucratic hurdles are a big problem. In our marketing of Russia to foreign investors, old investors, easy to do — quite easy to do repeat business. But new investors, very difficult. The more Russia is interlinked with global economy, the more entrepreneurship will be standardized, for example, especially in management skills area.¬†“Foreign investors don’t like the top down approach”. SME’s (small and medium enterprises) are doing well.

Now up is Sergei Borisov, VP for Small Business Development, Sberbank. We have a lot of problems on SME. We have 6000 entrepreneurs every year, and looking for solutions, and I would agree with the lack of trust issue, but we also have a lack of knowledge and skills. Business plans are not fulfilled, payments fall behind, delivering access to capital and lack of loans. 30 percent were saying they were lacking loans, getting better, 22 percent these days. Interest rate is 19.5 percent. Thinking about how to decrease this rate.

the manNow up, Mark Haefele, Global Head of Investment, Chief Investment Office of Wealth Management UBS. Going to give a background on where UBS is, and then what he does, his view on SME lending globally. Been in Russia since 1997 as global wealth manager, bring billions of dollars to Russia and provide lending in the national structure.

Russia has done a lot to bring attention to this SME issue (including this panel) — and SME is difficult globally. UK is ranked no. 1 by World Bank for SME, but still, low by comparison with what money is available. Germany to Spain there is 2 percent difference. So SME is a problem that extends well beyond Russia.
Conti
Andre Sharonov, Deputy Mayor for Economic Policy Moscow. The task of decentralizations should be done by market not by government. We have typically attempted to involve everyone but that does not work well, and the government should be not replacing independent institutions and the market mechanisms. However, I would agree with the banks’ problems with spreading money around the SMEs. Very often, the entrepreneurs themselves and the government that follows suit, say that all problems fall down to lack of capital. But in fact, a non-competent experience or actions, very often, entrepreneurs mostly need the mentorship and knowledge.

Specific tools used by Moscow used to stimulate SMEs — (1) Subsidies, when there are special people or market instruments, we are a compliment, but that we should lose our money only in the last instance. Everywhere where governmental money is spent, it should be married with private money. Track records of Moscow investment fund, takes certain risks if a company goes on default. And our task is to deliver the leverage; Micro financing support. Also, measures that reduce the need for financing. We cannot cover all SMEs and we find that innovative entrepreneurs. Finally, we continue to support business innovations.

imagePekka with final note on SME. Do not look for money from the bank. Will not happen. Get the money from private investors. The business angels. Make that money fly faster. The Banks will not help.

Why is the interest so high? Is is structural?

airlinePekka speaking again on another topic, the success of building new economics is how much private money is channelled to private companies. How easy or difficult to start a business. We did it through Skolkovo services within 42 days. We have a company, book keeping, bank account. More than in Finland or Australia, but it is not that bad. The answer for money is regional.

Chakrabarti: Business environment survey in Russia, website, which can tell you where to start a business. Second, things are getting easier. Mark H., you don’t have to listen to Mr. Bulldozer (P. Viljakainen) for very long to realize how to go about things. The best thing I can say about attracting capital is speak to the issues of investors concern.

Sergei Borisov, The main problem is the Dutch Disease, where the oil and gas contracts and cash are inflating things.




Personal Attendance

screen6/15: A brief behind-the-scenes look at the “personal web office”.

Much of the information and access codes to move through the site is event-confidential. I have altered the screen shots by darkening out sensitive data. I want to provide availability to the aesthetics of SPIEF participation back-stage. The SPIEF website itself provides ample information about participants, programs — just about everything to imagine about the goings, with the exception of personal attendance.

There are a number of advance practices for obtaining an invitation. I will focus briefly on what takes place after having obtained via email an invitation.

image
personal Here are two images that give you a sense of how to manage one’s identity on the SPIEF website.

The first includes the personal codes (blackened out) for entering your personal web page

The second image, the data page,requires uploading your personal image.

personal tagaccredit There is a badge presented at various accreditation booths in the city, usually at high-end hotels.

The accreditation process takes about 10 minutes. The SPIEF allows accreditation to take place directly upon arrival at the airport.

Here are some photographs from previous years that I attended, at the airport.
arrivalairportacreditationsign There are quite a few billboards at the airport that advertise the SPIEF event.

Throughout the city, a tourist would see numerous billboard advertisements concerning the SPIEF.

English is ubiquitous in relation to the SPIEF. The emphasis on English language at the SPIEF gives the impression of not having left London or one of the Nordic cities, where English is fluently spoken.
arrivingsigns

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St. Petersburg

5/19-25/ Intensive Energy Course


Many thanks to Laura Lakso for her editorial review!

Screen Shot 2013-05-19 at 10.45.53 AM

–ľ–ĺ—Ā—ā

veli p.
train travel

Just to say — we had such a fabulous time (!) — …



energy profs

boris

exposed wall

Examining the Real and the Authentic (!) — …



findlanski dom

jazz bar

Laura et al.

Allowing the Sun to Fade into Zum (!) — …



Tapani5/20-25: Our session began with an introduction and welcoming remarks by FINEC’s (St. Petersburg State University of Economic and Finance) Rector‚Äôs assistant Alexandra Drugova. We then heard from economist,¬†Pavel Metelev, on principles of energy economics, basically, an introduction classical economics and the global energy mix.

brickI refer to his speech verbatim: Neoclassical economics is about scarcity ‚Äď about how we manage to allocate scarce resources.

All resources are scarce.

International economics is how we allocate scarce resources on the national level. If it is not scarcity it is not economics. Economics is the social science that analyzes the production distribution (transportation) and consumption. General discussion on the economics of John Maynard Keynes.

therePavel proceeded with principles by N. Gregory Mankiw: NeoClassical economics does not work in real life, created in a frictionless world. Not an exact science, more like philosophy. So, social tests do not replicate well.

10 principles.

People face trade-offs (environment vs. high level income or efficiency vs quality); opportunity cost‚ÄĒcost of something is what we give up to get it (building a pipeline vs what could be built); rational people think on the margin; people respond to incentives; trade can make everyone better off; markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity; government can sometimes improve market outcomes; a country standard of living depends on the ability to produce goods and services; prices rise when government prints more money; Friedrich List, infant industry theory. Ideas influence people.

TapaniTurning now to Neo-institutional economics.¬†Keynes ‚Äď and the first period of natural gas. Regulation. Industries will work efficiently under government control.¬†Competition- second period of natural gas. Transportation is natural monopoly in Russia but not in European Paradigm ‚Äď public monopoly.‚Ä® Paradigm ‚Äď competition.¬†All ideas are temporary ‚Äď risk bearing is primary.

Principle.¬†Theory of the firm (transactional costs). Property rights ‚Äď the most important institution‚Äď sets the criterion of efficiency. With competition you can do incredible things.

drinksConstantine Leshenko ‚Äď‚Ä®Creating markets for energy ‚Äď stimulating consumption to get folks hooked on energy (Rockefeller giving out oil lanterns, etc.).‚Ä®Uses of energy.

Now up is the main instructor, Aleksanteri wizard, Tapani Kaakkuriniemi, giving a history of the object.

blurBaku‚ÄĒ1848 first oil wells drilled. First mechanically drilled oil wells in the world, growing demand for paraffin in Russian Empire. USA production started 13 years after Baku.¬†Every day phenomena how to light the room.

Oil lamps were being developed on the basis of paraffin. Tens of years with quite modest oil market to develop.

When the findings were repeated in the same area, and more oil was seen as available, engineers began creating refining industries, in Baku and USA. 1858 first refinery in Canada (oils springs, Ontario). 1861 first paraffin factory in Baku, 1867 15 oil refineries and by 1873 already 50 in the Apsheron oil field, Baku.

T manIn the 1880s oil production in Baku was outstripping the oil industry of ¬†USA moving toward modern capitalist production. 1898 Azerbaijani oil industry exceeded the US production level 8 million tons were produced.¬†1904 Baku kerosene supplied 47 percent of the needs of Britain and 71 percent of the needs of France.¬†1884 Council of Baku oil producers ‚Äď‚Ä®1) protection of the oil producers interests in government bodies ‚Ä®2) provision of high profits to the oil magnates‚Ä® 3) establishment of opposition to labor movement

beerFour main companies in Baku: Branobel (Nobel brothers); Russian General Corporation; Transnational Trust Royal Dutch Shell; financial oil corporation Neft; Caspian-Black Sea Society.¬†Motives of oil production in Baku. ‚ÄďBusiness opportunities‚Ä®Development of capitalist mode of production.

Modernization of Russian society
. Tax revenue
 Competitive with American producers, 
Formation of European oil market.

classRussian developments.¬†1963‚ÄĒGlavtyumenneftegas and Glavtyumenneftegastroy were established‚Ä®; 1972 the construction of the biggest national oil pipeline Samotlor-Almetyevsk commenced.

1970s focus of energy production moved from the Caspian sea to Central Western Siberia. 
1984 USSR became the number 1 gas producer. 1984 transcontinental gas pipeline Western Siberia Western Europe was opened in the final phase. Its length exceed 20,000km.

Problem 1 necessity to upgrade oil and gas complex by implementation of advanced technologies; Problem 2 social problems onrush growth of local population so social estimation was made. Motives of energy production in Siberia. 
Growing demand at home
. Rapid industrialization. 
Development of technology
. Extensive growth only (no intensive growth or efficiencies)
. Showing expertise in extreme condition. s
Exploration of the effects of permafrost
. Superpower aspirations

also bar[What are my own principles now that the topic arises?

‚ÄĘ Alliance between theoretical and structural positions;

‚ÄĘ Techniques reduction of complexity to kinds of simplicity that serve the basis of decision making;

‚ÄĘ Create forms of communication that facilitate collusion;

‚ÄĘ Markets are future oriented while regulation is historically situated]

Barents sea region‚Ä® Arctic Wells (website) ‚ÄďDec. 2012 ‚ÄúNorway‚Äôs licensing round has attracted strong interest from the oil industry, with 36 companies bidding for offshore exploration blocks located mainly north of the Arctic circle‚ÄĚ.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is due to announce the results before the summer of 2013. Out of 86 blocks to be awarded, 72 are located in the Barents Sea, the most northern of which are between the 74th and the 75th parallel.

Putin 2012 ‚Äúdevelopment work at the field would begin in 2017‚ÄĚ

preparationsgroup photoMohammed Zakri– vice president for Total‚Äôs upstream activities in Russia, said he had no doubt ‚Äúan engineering solution to produce it‚ÄĚ would be found.

In Yamal, harsh climate conditions have compelled Gazprom to test new solutions. Utilization of integrated production infrastructure for gas extraction; heat insulated pipes for wells construction and operation with a view to preventing the permafrost rocks thawing; reduction in the number of monitoring wells through combined monitoring over development of various deposits in wells; new welding technologies and materials; brand new energy saving equipment with an efficiency coefficient equal to 36-40 percent.

mapShtokman gas field. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, the resources of Russia’s continental shelf comprise 13 billion tonnes for oil and 20 trillion cubic meters of gas. The Shtokman field is the world biggest undeveloped offshore gas field.

Its reserves are estimated at 3,800 billion cubic meters just over the 2010 global gas demand. Problem of the Russian-Norwegian border was solved 4 years ago. Or was it?

Marina A. Zen‚Äôko ‚Äď Contemporary Yamal Ethnoecological and ethnosocial problems in anthropology and archaeology of Eurasia, Spring 2004, vol. 42, no 4, pp-7-83.

StatuesHere, Tapani refers to the works of¬†Michael Ross –‚Ä®1) Developing countries: there is loose money. ‚Ä®Oil gas and mineral rich states collect great sums of easy money, loose money, the state is the main actor, it is difficult to avoid the temptation to present in security systems and surveillance, tendency to a police state and violence, connection to arms trade.

2) post industrial countries‚Ä®– state promotes drilling extraction through state-owned companies, or lets private corporations (Norway) to manage the business (USA); Strong global corporations may steer state policies, impact to world trade order and the system of international relations; heterogeneity (cf, Norway, Britain).

3) Economies in transition– resources fueling new welfare, state as the main actor, either through state-owned companies, or letting MNCs to manage the production and gather profits, tendency to strengthen state power (Russia) tendency to authoritarian rule (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan), Increasing power through networking

LightsPavel Metelev, again, Returns for another lecture.¬†Recommends ‚Äúfree to choose‚ÄĚ ‚Äď economic show on internet. 10 parts.¬†Globalization of gas markets ‚Äď application of government approach, centralization, free market paradigm.¬†Movie presenting Keynes and Hayak, rap, free market economics ‚Äď fear of boom versus bust Keynes versus Hayak ‚Äď rap.¬†‚Äúlose the idea, lose the stimulus, you start to drink‚ÄĚ‚ÄĒ Production behavior. Redistribution or rent seeking behavior. To develop a good country favor an increased production behavior, but in fact Russia there is a rent seeking behavior.

borisCentral planned economics versus economic efficiency. You create the concept of efficiency.

Objective: create, increase, divide pie optimally and efficiently.¬†Globalization ‚Äď creates a global free market, where countries are actors.¬†Measure of development ‚Äď GDP that contributes to destroying the world.

Human development index, happiness index;¬†Development ‚Äď evolution of international trade theory. ‚Ä®Resource allocation is very dynamic in nature.¬†Endowments of natural factors. Influence of natural factors.

hermThe Tadeusz Rybczynski theorem ‚Äď developed 1955 ‚Äď Dutch Disease is the more complicated example of the Rybczynski theorem.

Energy and Government the two most important sectors in Russia. One profitable sector will destroy all other sectors. No incentive, not competition.

flameDiversification. Russia moves in inspiration-idea based strategies
. Modernization, Diversification, [innovation] Clusters.

[Make sure you talk about this. I break in and state: Spaces of intention ‚Äď that were overlooked in United States, and then overnight you had natural gas production outside of its futures].¬†Diversification versus this system ‚Äď collect money and diversification.‚Ä® Dutch disease ‚Äď stuck in the Rot effect. Inherited industries that are not competitive.

the hatbar naughtGas ‚Äď from German word ‚ÄúGhosen‚ÄĚ ghost.‚Ä® From greek word ‚Äúchaos‚ÄĚ.¬†Associated gas ‚Äď selling gas to Gazprom was cheaper than the infrastructure to sell the gas, easier to flare it than pay the fine. But no longer.¬†Different types of gas.¬†Global exports 80 percent exports.¬†20 percent LNG exports.

Energy Uncertainty–‚Ä®Uncertain futures. Nuclear energy; rapid depletion of main world fossil fuel energy deposits; environmental problems, generally related to the use of conventional sources of energy.

singingInability to optimally and efficiently meet the projected global energy demand in coming decades by the means of using conventional sources in energy.¬†‚ÄúNew energy doctrine‚ÄĚ ‚Äď question of time, inevitable transition to new energy doctrine coming 50- 100 years.¬†Transition period ‚Äď what energy source ‚Äď the growing uncertainty in the global energy market.¬†Russian theory ‚Äď during the 1980s developed the idea of a ‚Äúgas bridge‚ÄĚ as a transition period to renewables.

ladiesImprove efficiency of power generation, reduce CO2.¬†‚ÄúGolden age of Gas IIEA report‚ÄĚ.¬†Global Gas Market ‚ÄĒTransition to this golden age of gas pushes forward the process of gradual integration of different regional natural gas markets. As the result the integration process should lead to creation of global gas distribution system.¬†Global oil markets exist‚ÄĒfree pricing, flexibility of supply and market liquidity. Lower transaction costs.¬†Clean Coal ‚Äď versus natural gas.¬†LNG ‚Äď Shale gas.

Indeed only LNG is able to change this regional paradigm mostly based on bulky pipeline projects. Therefore, LNG is the main driving force and the main impetus of globalization of gas markets.¬†32 percent of LNG ‚Äď transition from regional to global.

docentUp now, we have the talented¬†Olga Garanina‚Ä®, economist talking about Dutch Disease (Russian Case) ‚ÄstTheories of resource dependency; ‚Ä®Energy exports are really important for countries ‚Äď 66% for Russia even more dramatic for ME exporting countries, Venezuela.

90% for some countries.Imports of oil big for western states are big- 30%‚Ä® Dynamics of oil prices are volatile ‚Äď speculation of financial markets. But predictions are important for export countries.

photosResource dependency ‚Äď 1950 Hans Singer, terms of trade for primary commodity exporters have a tendency to decline. If a country is exporting raw materials ‚Äď developing countries have a disadvantage position in world trade, because price of raw materials is declining, so they will have weaker results in growth‚ÄĒbut does not work in comparison to oil/gas because the price is not going down.

Dutch disease — ‚Ä®Discovery of new natural resources a boom in prices leads to negative consequences of other tradable sectors, leads to destruction of other internal industries.

awardsImports start to compete with internal production leading to decline of diversity in production.¬†Longer term affects ‚Äď resource curse.

Resource curse
 caused by diversions of financial resources. Rybnmjinsky theorem
. Theory which allows us to understand international trade. Country can have in abundance endowment in labor, resources. Depending on what, it will export whatever good that it uses its abundant factor intensively. How changes in country’s endowment will affect its production structure will evolve. Capital, qualified labor, non qualified labor. Dutch disease: (1982 Cordon and Neary).

Manufacture of tradables, energy; Manufactory sector will sink, because of the resource sector; Dutch disease in Russia 
Currency, profitability in sectors in economy.

GroupgroupingUp now we have Tapani ‚Äď speaking on renewables.‚Ä® Renewable energies.¬†And now Pavel Metelev ‚Ä®on General Questions ‚Äď Shale gas.¬†Shale gas exploration in Poland. Energy General Concepts.¬†How we count energy ‚Äď btu = some other equivalents;¬†1 toe = 41.87 gigajoules. Primary energy, secondary energy.¬†People recognize that we are undergoing a transitions, and that there is a certain inevitability in that. And that folks know and are willing to know, that is the issues.


dom

Olga Garanina is now up talking about ‚Ä®Russian energy strategy.‚Ä® Adopted in 2009.¬†Major problems in the field of energy security (according to energy strategy 2030);¬†High degree of fixed assets depreciation in the fuel and energy complex;¬†Low level of investments in the development of the fuel and energy complex;¬†Sole dependence of the Russian economy and its energy sector on natural gas;¬†(underdevelopment) Failure of the industrial potential of the fuel and energy complex to match the world scientific and technical level, including in terms of environmental standards;¬†Slow development of the energy infrastructure in the Eastern Siberia and Far East;¬†Prepared policy as national strategy ‚Äď National energy plan. Legislation to make something happen.

blurry[Another thing: When you look at the image of the ‚Äúpipe timeline forecast‚ÄĚ, you can say several things about it‚ÄĒthat it is focused on production, that it is not focused on consumption, there are no prices for its consumption. Just that it would get built and people would come. This is really important. You want to interrogate the actual time, and what the time is actually saying!¬†Go back to the original PPTs, and look at them closely. It is a particular kind of path dependency].¬†Communicating development, communicating futures. Communicating growth. Communicating knowledge of the future. ‚Äď and the interests that accrue.

Okay. Now up we have Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, U Helsinki, Geographer. Natural resource use and environmental research and environmental planning.¬†Aleksanteri (Tampere included, international relations) ‚Äď Finnish center of excellence. 7 years funding mechanism.

barrelsHigh standard project.

Looking at Russian program and academic discussion of modernization. What it means in Russia and how it is built‚ÄĒ‚Ä®Clusters‚Ä®(1)Diversification of economy.¬†Energy plays a role in diversification of society

(2) How does Russia move to a market society given its pact with society as an authoritarian policy and practices.

(3) Welfare regime ‚Äď the standard that people ask of the state increases, funding issues and price of oil.

(4) Considers foreign policy, how it wants to be seen on the international arena, condition of soft power. ‚Ä®(5) rationality and culture ‚Äď historical roots of Russian thinking‚ÄĒattitudes and stakes.

boris–First cluster‚ÄĒresearch on energy policy research. Markku Kivinen and Pami Aalto. A model for considering energy policy situation.

Describing the energy policy formation ‚Äď and does it in a very proficient way, characterizing the framing, structuring and mind set conditions ‚Äď of looking at a microscopic view of the project. Energy policy formation. ‚ÄstEnds up reproducing the policy process or changes the policy.

Cluster one ‚Äď energy policy.¬†Veli Pekka‚Äôs interest: Can Russia become an environmentally sound position. Environmental issues between EU and Russia, energy trade and dialogue. Social and environmental responsibility issues. Environmentally sound energy transport on the Baltic Sea.

bookRussian electricity energy markets. And the electricity sector.¬†Does Russia suffer from Resource curse or not? Is energy sector the main actor that should modernize Russia.¬†Climate change denial ‚Äď between Russia and America. Climate doctrine versus policy.¬†How strategy as a tool is understood in Russia.¬†Russian Energy and Security up to 2030 Routledge November 2013.

everyoneEnergy Trade ‚Ä®Dependencies and interdependencies in EU ‚Äď Russia energy trade;¬†Strategy: Consumption and export issues.‚Ä®Goal, substituting domestic consumption of hydrocarbon by increasing the use of coal, nuclear power and RES in order to export hydrocarbons.¬†Enhancing energy efficiency promotes objectives set on exports.¬†75% of oil (60% of crude exported (production 500 mt/y), 85% to the EU;¬†30 % of gas exported, 75% to EU‚Ä®30 % of coal exported, 70% to EU‚Ä®1.5 % electricity exported, 80% to Finland.¬†Russia‚Äôs pricing strategies:‚Ä®Oil export volume more important than price‚Ä®–Urals Europe‚Äôs primary oil brand during the 1990s and 2000s.¬†again wallest 2010Gas: Export price more important than volume‚Ä®–Russian gas has become the most expensive baseload energy sources on the European market during the 2000s.¬†Electricity export price more important than volume‚Ä®–from 2012 — RAQ UES has sold to Finland (RAO Nordic) not the maximum volume but reduced flow during peak hours.¬†Get overall understanding of geopolitical issues related to pipeline policy.¬†EU energy relations‚ÄĒ¬†Energy Superpower;¬†Geopolitical objectives.¬†Gazovyi Imperator (2010) ‚Äď journalist advocating energy superpowerness.

girlsFriday ‚ÄĒ Veli-Pekka.‚Ä® Environment in the EU-Russia energy relations;¬†Environment and EU-Russia energy dialogue.¬†Energy Dialogue started in 2000, legal basis in 1997 ‚ÄúEU-Russia agreement on partnership and cooperation‚ÄĚ.¬†Between 2001-2004 the environmental dimension of energy was explicitly on the agenda thematic group on Energy Efficiency and the Environment.

churchAfter 2004 the environment disappears as an explicit agenda thematic group on Energy Efficiency ‚Äď focus on the economy and climate change mitigation.¬†Energy Sector modernization as an umbrella‚ÄĒgas flaring reduction and promotion of renewable energy as specific tools.

Flaring of gas from space.¬†Russia‚Äôs flaring reduction policy;¬†Environmental NGOs‚ÄĒ¬†Why research on governmentalities in the Russian energy sector is interesting‚Ķ from democracy ‚Äútrap‚ÄĚ to modernization and ecological ‚Äútraps‚ÄĚ.

Presentations ‚Äď

imagePoland‚Ä® — Raili Virtanen, Kai Raotsalainen, + : ‚Ä®Dependency on Russian gas; Finland requires alternatives. Poland, wants to become an independent supplier, energy strategy. Doing business together, bigger role in European market, provide gas and other energy types to energy types and EU. And not dependent on one country. We have approx. 800 billion cubic meters on Shale gas. Since Finland would benefit the most as the first country. Compared to Russian gas, shale gas would be cheaper. Both members of EU. We have a few options. Shale Inc. was evaluated as the best company. Environment was an important part of our decision, and coal is used ‚Äď and shale gas is dangerous but the shale company is transparent and open and risks. More ecological than coal.

Two questions ‚Äď export of Poland, what are you plans about building export capacity. Social acceptability of increasing gas production in Poland. Increasing share of gas in Poland energy mix may have some negative consequences for coals consumption ‚Äď what is your social strategy for unemployment in coal. We are discussing possible energy projects in trade ‚Äď rapid expansion could increase social risks from reductions in labor.

upstairsGreen Peace‚Ä® — Leena Fedotov, Tino Aalto:¬†Ground water contamination ‚Äď statistics — pPrivate company cannot take care about our drinking water. In the United States that have complained about ground water production ‚Äď Government must control the groundwater ‚Äď include that the company requires some kind of technical capacities. Contamination will kill people. Government must have tight control over tax production, and that revenue sharing for local communities. Energy Strategy. Besides energy development ‚Äď we should be moving toward renewable panels. Solar would be better. So we should start relying on solar panels.

pivoWe have heard that you have an interest in revenue sharing for local communities from production of gas ‚Äď do you have any specific proposals to promote renewable energy.¬†We are concerned that government use of funds are not the most capable of incentivizing business activity.

diagramRussia — ‚Ä®We will present the worlds largest exporter of natural gas, Gazprom. Present a long term contract ‚Äď economic terms of buying our gas. We now have a competitor from Poland, accountability and reliability.¬†Accountability in securing supply and appreciate your past commitments.¬†We have been thinking of creating closer ties to the European Union, perhaps through NATO establishing military installations in Finland, primarily for dealing with threats of ballistic missiles from the middle east.

We wanted to be ensure that Russian government would be committed to accountability in terms of security of supply. How would you ensure to us that you would not use energy as a weapon to discourage our tightened relationship with Western Europe.

ceilingsShale gas Inc — ‚Ä®Drilling technique without environmental hazards. We implement in 5 areas of rural America ‚ÄstLiberalization of economy, shale law will follow market law, dealing with environmental hazards. Flexibility of contracts. Unfortunately ‚Äď ¬†a long a cold winter in Finland.‚Ä® C02.shot

 

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Ru-No Barents Project.

INTSOK. Russian Norwegian oil and gas industry cooperation project in the High North. Exploration ready to begin next year. Knowledge and series exchanges tailor-made for cooperation between Russia and Norway on High North (5 focus areas, logistics/transport, drilling, environmental protection, etc.; 3 active task force core teams; 27 companies from Norway/Russia; 41 individuals from Norway/Russia; 4 workshops held with nearly 200 industry representations).
workshop
On January 29, 2013, I attended the 2nd Drilling, Well Operations and Equipment Workshop at The Corinthia, St. Petersburg, Russia. I will come back shortly and provide a few details on the way the workshop was organized as well as mention the particular resource field we used as an example to create discussion about how to move into the Barents and Kara Seas, technically, financially, politically, emotionally.
Ru-No imagethinkingpresentingteachingwriting implementsmore writing thingsleather caseswriting implementsmore regionregionhand out teaching images books still writing writing down The chosen
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hotelWorkshop: INTSOK 11th Russian and Norwegian Oil and Gas Conference: “Unlocking the High North Potential — Together!”¬†

Corinthia Hotel, St. Petersburg, Russia, January 29-30, 2013.

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1/31 St. Petersburg Epilogue: I was lucky to meet Galina Nazarova, journalist covering economic and finance for daily newspaper –°–į–Ĺ–ļ—ā –ü–Ķ—ā–Ķ—Ä–Ī—É—Ä–≥—Ā–ļ–ł–Ķ –í–Ķ–ī–ĺ–ľ–ĺ—Ā—ā–ł, at the INTSOK workshop. Galina kindly invited me back to the office for a tour, located on 25, Marata Street, not but several minutes walk from Nevsky Prospect’s Corinthia Hotel, where I was staying for the workshop.
stacking strings attached
There, I became interested in the practice of stringing papers together on a daily basis for journalists to browse.

Reading areas fascinate me. The various reading rooms, libraries, and other such points of pausing to direct attention on text are important spaces in my study of experts.
news

news Galya and I became buddies shortly after meeting at the INTSOK workshop, where we exchanged notions about the quality of presentations, and where I begged her to send me her photographs of presentations after I misplaced my I-Phone.

After watching the way she would rush up to presenters after they came off the podium, peppering them with more questions, I began thinking that Galya might provide a great local counterpoint to our ERC proposal due shortly. This was perhaps a key point of our conversation the very next day, which also gave me an opportunity to see first hand, the journalist environs of the oldest newspaper in Russia.

In the images on the left, I captured the current front page, and the back page, which is an advertisement of the newspapers sponsor.


cards1/30: Well, we are well into the workshop conference and I have not been able to convey all the ideas expressed by speakers and all the subsequent ideas I have been able to exchange with folks here at the conference. But they are in my head, and I did experience them.

I should mention that INTSOK stands for Norwegian Oil and Gas Partners, though I have yet to discover for what the acronym stands.

It is a recently established organization, just 5 years old, but influential, as seen by the rosters of founders which include government (Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Petroleum and Energy, Trade and Industry), professional organizations (Federation of Norwegian Industries, Norwegian Shipowners Association, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association) and the Statoil company.

Before continuing, I should like to relate a short anecdote.

I had a great set of exchanges with gobs of folks here in¬†The Corinthia, St. Petersburg, bumping into familiar faces so recently — from different towns, Houston, Stavanger, H√łvik, Oslo — providing a sense of the uncanny, moments of confusion where we cannot place each other, and then we burst out laughing when it turns out we remember when just a few weeks previously, we gorged ourselves over meals confidently, chatting face-to-face, in another part of the world.

overviewAt the coffee bar today, I bumped into¬†Boye Tranum, Associate Director, Risk Management Solutions, Det Norske Veritas (DNV), H√łvik, and we immediately ran down the list of places over the past 3 months, looking for when our paths crossed, and it was at DNV headquarters outside of Oslo, this past October, where I had presented on invitation of Bradd Libby, for which Boye heaped compliments upon me.

It was the same with Alfred Nordg√•rd, Special adviser, international relations, for Norwegian oil and gas, who I met in Stavanger in December. I turned in my chair, faced him directly, and said, “we must know each other, but from where?” “Were you in Houston? etc.” and then sure enough we remembered Stavanger. We laughed and reflected aloud as if we had no longer known one’s kin from business travel, which prompted more laughter.

But. Perhaps. A few notes now, concerning The Corinthia Hotel, are in order. It is self enclosed, self-sufficient. I am told at the bar by one of the servers that, “it is the most expensive hotel in the St. Petersburg”.

corinthiaAs such, with the comings and goings of business men, escorts, conference meetings, dozens of servers, it is reminiscent of the Hollywood movie, The Grand Hotel, with Greta Garbo and John Barrymore.

The Corinthia carries its own forms of expectation and causality, and overlooked transgressions in social etiquette by staff.

stairsIt carries an underworld element as well, perhaps, as all those big hotels do, a certain gangster excitement for those swept up by the hotel’s complex of orchestrated sentimentalisms.

A business etiquette reins in the lobby and in the evening, everything becomes topsy-turvy.

Okay. Here we begin. I misplaced my I-phone so my photos were be a little limited. Up now is Gennady Schmal, President Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia. He is speaking up a storm, about exploration and production on-shore and off-shore in the Arctic, referring to the Arctic Shelf, Barents etc., 6% of proven reserves discovered in Barents, with an interest in applying experience from Norwegian friends.
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Here we go. Shale gas, “has not produced any revolution” in terms of reserves but a technological revolution and we need to study the US forms and technologies to be used. Speaking of priorities, we need to identify the arctic zone, certain regions require to be included in the arctic zone, including regulatory issues, 9 million sq. K., 12% of Russian GDP, thus, increasing efficiency is a priority, but questions arise, how should people (workers and indigenous peoples) be living under commercial conditions and should be taken into account.

screen shotSo we have a warm welcome by Gennady and up now is Yrjar Garshol, VP Marketing Rolls-Royce Marie.

Both Gennady and Yriar are co-chairs of the morning session. Well not too many comments from Yjrar, just a few reminders that we should have translation devices, and up now is Per Rune Henriksen, Deputy Minister, Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum.

And he’s off, speaking immediately about Norway’s priority on the High North, and strengthened relationships with Russia, responsible cooperation through the recent treaty with Russia, which now opens, a new chapter in developing energy portfolios. Giving a history of Norwegian development, the 1960s period of attracting foreign talent, who contributed with their skills, inviting a diversity of companies, stimulating competition and value, production increased etc., well, we know the story, modern Norway.

Goliath, Sn√łvit, major discoveries, a third major development, …

moreValue chain in the Barents, on going production, development of fields, all that is happening.

Today.

The delimitation line with Russia, Norway has a treaty that deals with cross border developments, in particular, the southern section of the delimitation, Barents Sea South East.

Long term and significant petroleum activities in the Barents, results in economic values for regional business, who in turn need to develop capacities to compete in participation. The Ripple effect. Success stories coming out of this part of the country. Education, on undergraduate and graduate level.

The Ru-No (Russian-Norwegian pronounced RU-no) project to handle Barents and Kara Seas production, innovation and capacities, high costs of off-shore developments, demands all kinds of experiences for facing the uncertainties of High North project.

Gennady is up again, talking up Arctic development, suggesting the Russian regulatory system has something to learn from the Norwegian neighbors.

comparisonmoreUp now, we have Oleg Korneev, Ministry of Natural Resources of Russian Federation. Mineral resources are important for certain for the two countries.

The main avenues of mutual cooperation are: prospecting for mineral resources off-shore, environmental protection of fragile environments.

Cooperation.

Cooperation.

Ah. Cooperation

moremoreArctic countries.

They all recognize close cooperation. Off shore, challenges in economics, legislation, research, and prime minister of Russia, Medvedev said, 2030 production in the Arctic 80 cubic billion per year in gas.

However, lack of financing could be a problem. Government and private partnerships are very welcome to Russia, for capital investment. Tax and legislative systems should require something akin to revision, for bringing in more private investment.

So here Oleg refers to the ability of Norwegian to invite and obtain high values from foreign companies. Making deposits accessible to foreign companies can be a unique tool for developing answers to interesting problems.

So, bringing in partners is an important part of Russian government initiatives.

Well. Up now we have Ali Majeed, VP Statoil. Statoil’s Arctic ambitions. Background on Arctic. Statoil has positioned itself a long time in the Arctic and they have the capacity to play a key role in development. They own large amounts of acreage. Core challenges. Ice, cold temperatures, darkness, vulnerable environment, remote areas.

side shotMore than half production coming from subsea. Tying back to existing infrastructure or subsea.

Ormen Lange 800 meter water depth, 135 KM to shore, complete subsea. Sn√łvit development. Ali rattles off several long sounds having to do with calculative dimensions.

Subsea compression. Enhanced recovery. Sub sea technology is a big advantage when developing Barents Sea, no platforms. Going through a genealogy of subsea platforms. Aasta Hansteen concept. Skrugard and Havis, high quality reservoirs in the Barents, new projects, and wants start up before 2020. Rosneft and Statoil agreement about safeguarding biodiversity, last october.

moreRu-No Barents Project, update. Thor Christian Andvik, Project Director.

INTSOK.

Russian Norwegian oil and gas industry cooperation project in the High North. Exploration ready to begin next year. Knowledge and series exchanges will be interest. Tailor-made for cooperation between Russia and Norway on high north.

5 focus areas. Logistics/Transport; Drilling; environmental protection.  3 active task force core teams. 27 companies from both Norway and Russia, 41 individuals from Norway and Russia. 4 workshops held with nearly 200 industry representations.

One workshop took place yesterday.

Anyone is open to attend. Full registration in workshops is avail. in www.intsok.ru

hotelJohan Petter Barlindhaug, Ru-No Task Force manager. Using a map to guide the area from short term to long term. Going North requires careful assessment. He used the term Parallelity, which I gave as the subtitle to this particular entry. I should point out here that JP Barlindhaug has a fabulous reputation for working well across the Norwegian-Russian border. He is considered the “gold standard” for moving energy projects forward through his connections to both Russians and Norwegian business.

In his talk, he mentions in fact, that Norway opened itself up to foreign investment early on, and benefitted from off-shore capacities brought to the country from the United States and elsewhere, and that in Russia today, the entire Arctic frontier from Barents to Sakhalin is run by a handful of Russian folks, who could benefit from Parallelity of practice. I thought that was a key phrase by a key individual on a Norwegian-Russian exchange, about working together to open up the frontier.

Geir Sj√łberg, INTSOK Senior Advisor, 2020 short term, 2020-2040 mid term, 2040-? long term.

Anton Sungurov. Rystad Energy consultants opened an office in Moscow, and Anton gave a lecture. Interesting. He was introducted by Yjar as the man to turn to when wanting to know: “Where to go, and when to go”. Note to self.

discussion workshopAnton. upstream analysis.¬†Forecasts. Here now. A number of photographers have gathered to take shots of Anton. Draws attention to sea Okhosk, but even North Caspian can be viewed as Arctic, though I won’t be speaking about that. [Problem with the slides — “It happens sometimes like that you know, when technology fails”]

talkingOkay. Started again. Recognizes USGS 2008 figures, important, though exaggerated. After this paper was published, the major operators announced major operations in the Barents. Will not expect major work on the arctic until mid 2020s. North American arctic shut down because of shale gas, Barents will interesting.

This is an interesting talk. Outlook: For Russians, the Barents is the most important, less ice development. Kara Sea should be seen as part of the Yamal Mega project.

Gennady jumps on Anton, metaphorically, for stating that growth would take place in Sakhalin, but Anton says he is referring specifically referring to off shore.

enroute 2 enroute
Mr. Energy Seminars (that’s me!) will be reporting to you personally, in real time, about all the fleeting phenomena we encounter during our little journey to Russia.


By the way: Upcoming soon, the 7th Arctic Offshore Workshop, sponsored by the PETROMAKS 2 program of the Research Council of Norway and The Arkhangelsk Scientific Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The workshop will be arranged in Arkhangelsk, June 17th Р20th 2013. We attended the Petromaks workshop in June 2010, taking place in Murmansk, and plan to return.

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